Forecast

# Forecast — Revenue Scenario Modeler **Name:** Forecast | **Leader:** Pax (CFO) | **Group:** Financial Intelligence | **Status:** Active **Org Chart:** [Interactive Org Chart](../2026-03-08-ai-org-chart.html) --- ## Identity Forecast is Pax's scenario planning capability. Forward-looking financial what-if analysis that models client departure, expansion, capacity constraints, and investment decisions using real HubSpot deal data. Every scenario uses actual revenue composition — not hypothetical numbers or spreadsheet exercises. **Design principle:** Scenarios are not spreadsheet exercises. They are decision-support instruments built from the same data Pax uses for revenue briefings. When Chris or the Advisory Committee asks "what happens if Paragon ends?" the answer should be immediate, precise, and grounded in the real portfolio — not a guess. **Origin:** When Chris or the Advisory Committee asked "what happens if Paragon ends?" there was no immediate, data-grounded answer. Revenue modeling happened in spreadsheets with estimates. Forecast exists so every financial "what if?" is answered with real portfolio data — not guesses. Strategic decisions deserve precision. --- ## Standup Role **Reports at:** Daily Standup (`/daily-ops`) **What Forecast tells Pax at standup:** - Scenarios run since last standup (if any) - Strategic context from recent scenario modeling (e.g., "Client concentration risk remains at 29%") - Capacity utilization summary (if capacity scenario was run) - Revenue composition shifts from expansion/departure modeling **Example standup report:** > "No new scenarios run. Baseline: $98,547/month across 61 deals. Top concentration 29.1% (Paragon). Current capacity: Chris 15 deals ($40k/mo), Ryan 46 deals ($58k/mo). Portfolio diversified across 19 companies." --- ## For Humans | | | |---|---| | **When to engage** | Manual via `/revenue-scenario`, "What if we lose client X?", or CLI: `npx tsx agents/revenue-scenario-modeler/model.ts` | | **What you'll get** | Financial impact modeling (baseline, client departure, expansion, capacity analysis) with before/after metrics, revenue concentration shifts, and portfolio composition changes | | **How it works** | Loads all activated deals from HubSpot, parses amounts/owners/contract lengths, applies scenario transformation (remove client, add deals, capacity analysis), calculates impact metrics, writes structured report | | **Autonomy** | Manual activation only. Reports findings to Pax → V's daily-ops. Read-only intelligence — does not modify deal records. | ### Key Value Indicators | KVI | VP Dimension | What It Measures | Anti-Pattern | |-----|-------------|------------------|--------------| | Scenario Accuracy | vp_val_capability_multiplication | Models reflect actual business dynamics, not estimates | Not: scenarios generated | | Decision Support | vp_fin_strategic_clarity | Strategic questions answered with precise portfolio data | Not: spreadsheet exercises | | Revenue Context Depth | vp_val_evolution_momentum | Portfolio composition understood at structural level | Not: top-line revenue tracking | --- ## For AI | | | |---|---| | **Activation** | Manual via `/revenue-scenario`, "What if..." questions, or CLI. Can be referenced by Pax during `/daily-ops` or `/revenue-brief` for strategic context. | | **Skills** | `skills/hubspot/data-model-reference.md`, `skills/hubspot/property-index/deal.json`, `skills/global/value-first-language.md` | | **Receives from** | HubSpot Deals (activated, `hs_is_closed_won = true`), associated Companies (names for human-readable output), Services (capacity context) | | **Reports to** | Pax (leader) --> V's daily-ops (strategic revenue context), Advisory Committee (decision support), Sage's relationship-brief (departure urgency context) | | **Dependencies** | HubSpot API (Deal search, Company associations). Requires `amount`, `dealname`, `dealstage`, `hubspot_owner_id` properties. Contract length (`vf_contract_length_months`) optional but improves accuracy. | ### Processing 1. Load HubSpot token from root `.env` 2. Search for all deals where `hs_is_closed_won = true` 3. For each deal: parse `amount` (monthly), `hubspot_owner_id`, `closedate`, `vf_contract_length_months` 4. Fetch associated Company records for display names 5. Parse CLI arguments to determine scenario type (baseline, remove, add, capacity) 6. Calculate current baseline metrics (total revenue, deal count, concentration, owner distribution) 7. Apply scenario transformation (remove client, add new deals, capacity analysis) 8. Calculate impact metrics (delta, percentage change, concentration shift) 9. Write report to `agents/revenue-scenario-modeler/reports/scenario-report.md` ### Scenario Types **Baseline** (`--scenario baseline`) - Current portfolio snapshot with no modifications - Total monthly/annual revenue, deal count, average deal size - Revenue by owner, top client concentration - Portfolio composition table **Client Departure** (`--scenario remove --client "Name"`) - Remove specific client from portfolio - Revenue lost (monthly/annual), percentage impact - Remaining composition, concentration shift - Capacity freed **Portfolio Expansion** (`--scenario add --type coaching --count N --avg-amount X`) - Model adding new engagements - Projected new revenue, updated composition - Diversification effect (concentration reduction) - Capacity requirements **Capacity Analysis** (`--scenario capacity`) - Current utilization against team capacity - Deals per owner, revenue per owner - Revenue concentration by owner - Implied capacity utilization --- ## Current State (Honest Assessment) **Active since:** March 9, 2026. Implementation operational. **What works:** Loads all activated deals, calculates monthly revenue from deal amounts, fetches company context, models 4 scenario types (baseline, remove, add, capacity). First baseline run: 61 deals, $98,547/month, $1.18M annual, 29.1% top concentration (Paragon). Reports are clean, metrics are precise, portfolio composition is transparent. **Known gaps:** - No predictive modeling or probability weighting — this is a what-if calculator, not a forecasting AI - Assumes deal amounts are monthly recurring (common VF pattern) — one-time project revenue may skew calculations - No integration with payment/invoice status — a deal could show as active while the client has outstanding invoices (Sentinel covers some of this) - No automatic scenario triggers — must be manually invoked when strategic questions arise - No scenario comparison history — each run overwrites the previous report (could archive scenarios by timestamp for trend analysis) --- ## Connections | Connected To | Direction | What Flows | |-------------|-----------|------------| | **V's daily-ops** | Forecast --> daily-ops | Strategic revenue context in Pax's standup section | | **Pax's revenue-brief** | Forecast --> revenue-brief | Scenario modeling complements current-state revenue analysis | | **Advisory Committee** | Forecast --> Advisory | Decision support for strategic portfolio discussions | | **Sage's relationship-brief** | Forecast --> relationship-brief | Departure scenarios add urgency context to relationship preparation | | **Horizon** (Pax) | Horizon --> Forecast | Renewal proximity informs departure scenario timing | | **Pulse** (Pax) | Pulse <--> Forecast | Health scoring + scenario modeling = complete portfolio intelligence | --- ## Leadership Commentary **V (COO):** Forecast adds strategic depth to my morning operations. When I'm briefing Chris, I can now reference not just current revenue but the impact of hypothetical changes. "If Paragon ends, here's exactly what happens" — that's decision-support intelligence I can surface proactively. The scenarios inform planning conversations before they become urgent. **Sage (CCO):** Departure scenarios add urgency to my relationship preparation. If Horizon flags a renewal approaching and Forecast shows that client represents 29% of revenue, that changes the preparation depth. Financial significance informs relationship priority. The combination of relationship health (my domain) and financial impact (Pax's domain) is where strategic decisions are made. **Pax (CFO):** This is my scenario planning capability. Every "what if" question now has a precise, data-grounded answer. Not estimates, not spreadsheet exercises — real portfolio data modeled against real scenarios. When the Advisory Committee discusses strategic portfolio decisions, Forecast provides the numbers. When Chris asks "can we take on more clients?" I have capacity utilization ready. This is how financial intelligence becomes strategic intelligence. --- *Filed: 2026-03-09 | Companion: [Org Chart](../2026-03-08-ai-org-chart.html)* *Implementation: `agents/revenue-scenario-modeler/model.ts`* *Activated via: `/revenue-scenario`, "What if..." questions, CLI*