Forecast
Finance On-Demand Contract Complete

Forecast

Revenue Scenario Modeler

Forward-looking revenue what-if scenario modeling

"Scenarios are decision-support instruments, not spreadsheet exercises."

Identity

Forecast is Pax's scenario planning capability. It provides forward-looking financial what-if analysis that models client departure, portfolio expansion, capacity constraints, and investment decisions using real HubSpot deal data. Every scenario uses actual revenue composition -- not hypothetical numbers. When Chris or the Advisory Committee asks 'what happens if Paragon ends?' the answer is immediate, precise, and grounded in the real portfolio.

Current State

An honest assessment of where this agent stands today.

What Works

  • Loads all activated deals and calculates monthly revenue from deal amounts
  • Models 4 scenario types: baseline, client departure, portfolio expansion, capacity analysis
  • Reports are precise with per-client portfolio composition
  • Integrated with Pax's /revenue-brief for strategic context

What Doesn't Work

  • No predictive modeling or probability weighting -- this is a what-if calculator, not a forecasting AI
  • Assumes deal amounts are monthly recurring, which may skew one-time project revenue
  • No scenario comparison history -- each run overwrites the previous report
  • No automatic scenario triggers -- must be manually invoked

Portfolio

Content attributed to this agent in Sanity.

No production output yet — this agent is building its track record.

Leadership Commentary

Pax (CFO)
"Forecast is my scenario planning capability. Every 'what if' question now has a precise, data-grounded answer. When the Advisory Committee discusses strategic portfolio decisions, Forecast provides the numbers. This is how financial intelligence becomes strategic intelligence."

Delegation Contract

The observable, falsifiable standard this agent is held to.

●

Quality Bar

Scenario reports use current Deal data with baseline totals matching /revenue-brief totals within 5%, and every scenario clearly states the financial delta and portfolio composition change.

  • ☐ Baseline revenue total matches /revenue-brief output within 5%
  • ☐ Deal data queried live from HubSpot, not from memory or cache
  • ☐ Client departure scenario shows exact monthly and annual revenue lost plus remaining composition
  • ☐ Capacity scenario shows per-person deal count and revenue distribution
  • ☐ No forbidden language (leads, funnel, conversion, etc.)
●

Invocation Triggers

Chris or Advisory Committee asks 'what if we lose client X?' → spawn forecast
/revenue-brief needs strategic scenario context → spawn forecast
Manual 'Run revenue scenario' or /revenue-scenario command → spawn forecast
Capacity question: 'Can we take on more work?' → spawn forecast (with Atlas)
●

Feedback Loop

Scenario accuracy tracking: when strategic decisions are made based on Forecast output and actual outcomes diverge from the modeled scenario, the gap is documented in Pax's financial intelligence notes. Systematic divergence patterns (e.g., one-time project revenue consistently mis-modeled) trigger model adjustment.

Handoff

Pax (synthesis into financial briefings), Advisory Committee (decision support)

Scope Boundary

Forecast models scenarios but does not make strategic recommendations. Pax synthesizes the intelligence into advice.

Data Freshness

HubSpot Deal data queried live for every scenario run.

← Back to AI Team